ED

What ED's Earnings Track Record Actually Says About Price Reactions

Consolidated Edison (ED) has beaten the official consensus in 7 of the last 8 reported quarters, an 88% beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of 3.1%. Despite that strong headline record, the average 5-day price move over the five trading days after those reports is only 0.43%, classified as flat. That disconnect is the central feature of ED's earnings profile: a beat does not reliably translate into a sustained rally, and a miss has not always produced a sustained selloff.

Look at the four most recent reports. On 2026-02-19, ED beat by 4.0% with actual EPS of $0.89 against an estimate of $0.856, yet the stock fell 1.89% the next session and 1.04% over the next five days. On 2025-08-07, a 4.5% beat—actual EPS $0.67 versus estimate $0.641—led to a 0.50% next-day drop and a 2.04% decline over five days. On the other hand, the 9.2% beat on 2025-11-06 (actual EPS $1.90 versus estimate $1.74) produced a 1.58% next-day gain and a 4.08% five-day gain. Even the most recent quarter, 2026-05-07, was a 4.8% miss—actual EPS $2.17 versus estimate $2.28—but the stock slipped only 0.08% the next day and actually rose 0.70% over the following five days.

Options-Flow Dynamics Around the Next Report

ED is scheduled to report next on 2026-08-06 after the close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.755. Because the five-day post-earnings drift has averaged just 0.43%, options pricing needs to be read with that baseline in mind. Implied volatility into the report captures the market's real expectation for an immediate gap, but historical realized moves after the last four prints have ranged from a next-day drop of 1.89% to a next-day gain of 1.58%. If the options market is pricing a much larger expected move than that, the risk premium may be expensive relative to realized outcomes.

Traders also tend to focus on whether the August options term carries a volatility premium over deferred months such as September. Given the flat medium-term drift, directional post-earnings trades can be particularly sensitive to opening order flow, guidance commentary, and any changes to the outlook that affect utility-sector discount rates.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

With ED at $108.25, below the 50-day EMA of $110.13 and an RSI of 41.9, the snapshot is neither deeply oversold nor strongly overbought heading into the print. Rather than trading purely on beat-or-miss, a disciplined approach watches how the first 30 minutes of volume resolves the overnight gap, how price behaves relative to pre-earnings VWAP, and whether the five-day drift confirms side or reverses.

Because the 5-day post-earnings drift is classified as flat, follow-through on any opening move has been inconsistent. A strong guidance-driven reaction often needs to hold into the second session before a sustained five-day move develops. For a deeper dive into how the largest holders and sell-side models are positioned, readers should review the full institutional verdict.